Year-End Report: Interest Rates, Inflation, USD Strength, Trading Opportunities
How will Q4 of 2022 end, and where will Q1 of 2023 pick up? Those questions focus on three key economic parameters that play into practically every investment decision for forex, stock, options, commodities, and precious metals traders. The factors are interest rates, inflation, and the strength of the US dollar (USD). Any insight into those components of the domestic financial scenario is worth its weight in gold.
But what’s the most effective way to set a short-term investment strategy for the coming year? Even more relevant than that question is how will each of the three core factors behave in the coming months? It pays to examine each criterion independently before creating a worthwhile strategy. Related to the concept of risks and opportunities for investors is the idea of how the USD will perform in light of recent interest hikes and inflationary pressures. A step-by-step approach makes sense, which is why it pays to examine those rates first, followed by inflation and the USD. Only then is it possible to assess the various risks and opportunities the current market offers.
What’s Happening with Interest Rates?
New and experienced traders can use the international forex (FX) marketplace to study interest rate movements and potentially profit from changes. Many individuals open brokerage accounts for that very purpose. Note that you can download mt4 here and get started with a basic forex account. Interest rate news is of the utmost importance for FX traders because even a slight upward or downward move can have a significant effect on the value of the dollar. Generally speaking, when the Federal Reserve Board increases rates, the dollar’s strength rises due to an influx of foreign investment. That doesn’t always happen, but the rule tends to hold more often than not.
In late 2022, the Fed upped the rate by a half percentage point. This move was the first time in the past four increases that the board did not increase interest by three-quarters of a percent. The official explanation is that the raises are a way to fight inflation, which is currently running at record highs. The December 2022 Fed Funds rate is currently 4.375%, and the board indicated that they intend to continue raising it until inflation is fully under control, perhaps by the end of 2023.
Is Inflation Really Decreasing?
Unlike Fed rate hikes, rising price levels hurt the dollar because it directly affects its worth. In a way, when inflationary forces take over, the domestic currency’s spending power suffers a subsequent hit. What’s the current state of things? After hitting a peak in June 2022, or about 9%, it has fallen steadily. As of late December, the critical number was hovering around the 7% mark.
For the first half of 2023, it’s possible that the continued Fed rate hikes could continue to stifle inflation’s grip on the consumer and producer sectors. Realistically, how far could it fall? If the Fed is serious about its intention to successively raise interest rates, then it’s conceivable that the rate could return to its pre-2020 range of slightly below or above the 2% mark. If that happens, look for the USD to strengthen significantly, assuming no other factors cause a concurrent downward force on its value.
How is the US Dollar Performing?
The USD was on a steady run of improvement for about a full year until mid-2022, when it took a hit and fell back below the 110-index mark. Considering the potential for inflation to ease, as well as continued Fed rate hikes, it’s possible that the currency could enjoy a positive 2023.
Risks & Rewards for Investors & Traders
Investing enthusiasts and those who are not currently trying to get out of a financial crisis, who are account holders with reputable online brokers as well, have a number of choices for the coming year. Assuming the dollar will strengthen, inflation will abate, and interest rates will go up, there are dozens of potentially profitable maneuvers available. As a hypothetical scenario, if the domestic currency rises above the 110-benchmark point, that could portend another run in USD strength.
Of course, whether that actually happens and how long a possible run-up would last are the subject of speculation. Keeping an eye on the dollar is central to building a short-term and long-term forex strategy. Note that even if the dollar falls in value, the vital factor is how it performs relative to another currency. For 2023, given the many changes in the inflation rate, interest rates, and strength of the dollar, the forex markets are sure to be highly active. Speculating on the dollar comes with risk but also with the prospect of potential profits.
